Air Conditioner and Heat Pump Statistics: 2026 Global Market Data

The global heat pump market is estimated at roughly $93 billion to $103 billion in 2026, while the broader HVAC market is worth around $302 billion to $333 billion. Heat pumps are growing as countries push for greater electrification. They offer better energy efficiency and lower-carbon heating and cooling.

The U.S. market is part of that shift.

The U.S. air conditioning market is estimated at $37.62 billion in 2026, while the U.S. heat pump market is around $14.81 billion. It is growing faster than many traditional heating upgrades.

So, what’s behind the change?

Well, improved efficiency, growing cooling demand, government incentives, and the push to reduce fossil-fuel use are all playing a role. The HVAC industry is also moving to A2L refrigerants, which is changing the equipment homeowners and contractors are buying.

TL;DR Air conditioner demand remains strong worldwide, especially in Asia-Pacific, while heat pump demand is growing faster as efficiency, electrification, and climate concerns drive adoption. In 2026, the global heat pump market is around $100B, while AC demand continues to expand. The U.S. is recovering, Europe is accelerating heat pump adoption, and Asia-Pacific remains the largest cooling market.

Global Market Overview

Global temperature rise and growth in the construction sector led to more popularity in air conditioning and heat pumps worldwide over the years.

Air Conditioner Demand

The global HVAC systems market is expected to reach $277.79 billion in 2026. Regarding actual equipment sales, JRAIA reported that 131.6 million air conditioners were sold worldwide in 2024. 

Residential units made up about 113.5 million, while commercial units accounted for roughly 18.1 million. China alone represented about 38% of global demand, with nearly 49.7 million units sold.

For HVAC market revenue, Mordor Intelligence estimates the global air conditioner market at $171.88 billion in 2026, with a projected 6.42% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2031.

One thing to keep in mind when comparing market figures: different research companies use different market definitions.

For example, some reports focus only on residential room air conditioners, while others include commercial equipment. That’s why revenue estimates can look dramatically different even when both sources are credible.

Air Conditioner Market by Type

Air conditioners fall into two broad families: units that sit in a room and units that condition an entire building. Here is what each type does and how much the segment is worth right now, relative to a total air conditioner market of $171.88 billion in 2026.

AC Type	2026 Market Size
Window AC	$15.2B
Portable AC	$1.6B
Split AC (Mini-Split)	53.65% of market
Central Ducted	~$118.2B (2025)
Packaged / Rooftop	50.8% of market
VRF	$17.80B
Chillers	$11.2B
Inverter	71.85% of shipments

Heat Pump Adoption

The global heat pump market is estimated at $100.18 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach $211.93 billion by 2034, growing at a 9.82% CAGR. Asia Pacific accounts for about $50.48 billion of the market in 2026 according to Fortune Business Insights.

Early 2026 sales also show signs of recovery:

• United States: About 2.16 million heat pumps were shipped from January through June, up 3.8% from the same period last year. June shipments alone increased 15.1%.
• Europe: Around 575,000 residential heat pumps were sold across 11 countries in Q1 2026, up 17% from Q1 2025. France, Germany, and Poland saw particularly strong growth.
• China: China remains the world’s largest heat pump market and a major manufacturing center, with production costs estimated at 35% to 50% lower than other regions.

The latest full-year global data is from 2025, when about 108 GW of heat pump capacity was sold worldwide.

The IEA also estimates that installed heat pumps reduced natural gas use for building heating in Europe, Japan, and China by roughly 53 billion cubic meters that year.

The 2025 figures are still useful because complete 2026 global data isn’t available yet. Annual reports from organizations such as the IEA, EHPA, and AHRI are published after the year closes, while current 2026 data is available mainly through monthly or quarterly shipment reports.

Heat Pump Market by Type

Not every heat pump does the same job. Some heat air, some heat water, some go in a wall, and some go in the ground. Here is how the main types compare and what each segment is worth right now.

Heat Pump Type	2026 Market Size
Air-source	$59.84B
Air-to-water	$44.27B
Ductless (Mini-split)	$19.38B
Ground-source (Geothermal)	$14.53B

In contrast, heat pumps are experiencing a more significant growth. The all-year usability feature makes these systems more popular than air conditioners or furnaces individually.

In 2019, a total of 84 gigawatt of heat pump capacity was sold globally. The regional distribution was:

• China: 31 GW
• United States: 23 GW
• European Union: 13 GW
• Japan: 7 GW
• Rest of the world: 10 GW

Heat pumps that were installed since 2019 have contributed to 50 million CO2 emissions saved annually.

In 2024, the heat pump sales can be summarized as:

Region	Sales Data	Key Cause/Trend
US	4.12M units (+14% YoY)	IRA tax credit drives growth
EU	France (546K units) Italy (394k units)	Germany sales drop (almost 47%)
Asia Pacific (APAC)	$39.92B	Low penetration causing high growth
China	Leading AC revenue as a country ($15.98B)	Manufacturing hub

Key Trends Driving Heat Pumps and Air Conditioning Growth

• The global temperature is rising. With this rise comes the rise in the need for cooling. Air conditioners and heat pumps provide direct cooling or heat transfer to cool indoor spaces. Besides, heat pumps can also be an alternative to traditional split HVAC systems for both cooling and heating (furnaces), as they can do both all year.
• Air conditioner growth, although upward, is rising towards a saturated rate. On the other hand, heat pumps are expected an exponential growth. Trending desire for greener solutions accelerated this growth.
• Heat pumps replacing gas furnaces have been reported to reduce carbon emissions by 72% on day one. Over a 15-year lifespan, it is expected to be 92%. Even states like Wisconsin can also reduce the impact by up to 62% over the 15-year period.
• Government incentives and tax returns are responsible for huge heat pump growth. In 2024, approximately 453,000 tax returns were filed for heat pump installations. They averaged $11,213 for electric or gas furnaces.
• Technological shifts are another key reason behind heat pump and air conditioner sales. Despite being an active user, people often look for an upgrade for better features. Although air-to-air heat pumps show a steady increase in sales, air-to-water heat pumps experienced a 41.1% in 2021 and a 49.3% increase in 2022 in Europe.

Regional Breakdowns

United States

• 2020: Heat pump shipments rose to 3.42 million units. 15% of single-family detached homes and 30% of mobile homes had heat pumps. The air conditioner market revenue from North America was $7.04 billion. 10.2 million AC units were in retail in North America, and 399 million in the whole US. It was the second highest reported by regions.
• 2021: Air-to-air heat pump sales increased by 15%, and AC shipments increased to 6.28 million units. The US had a 49.2% market share of heat pump sales globally. North America alone reported a revenue of $8.12 billion.
• 2022: The United States’ air conditioner shipment was 6.05 million units. The US’s heat pump market share increased to 52.6%.
• 2023: 23 million metric tons of CO2 were avoided from 2019-2023, and the US was the largest contributor to this heat pump-related emission reduction. The air conditioner market made $14.92 billion in revenue, although the total number of units rebounded to 5.56 million.
• 2024: The air-source heat pump shipments reached 4.12 million. Residential heat pump stock reached 24.5 million units. The average tax return for heat pump installation was $11,213. Increased demand for smart AC has dropped the market revenue to $8.52 billion.
• 2025: AC and heat pump shipments fell 20%, from 9.68M to 7.75M units. AC shipments dropped 26.2% to 4.10M, while heat pumps fell 11.6% to 3.64M. Even with the decline, heat pumps outsold gas furnaces by 11% for the fourth straight year. The slowdown came from the R-410A transition, tariffs, high interest rates, inventory destocking, and expired federal tax credits. The $2,000 Section 25C heat pump credit ended for systems installed after December 31, 2025. The U.S. AC market reached $25.24B, while Carrier’s residential HVAC sales fell nearly 40% in Q4.
• 2026: The market began recovering. January–June shipments reached 4.72M units, up 3% YoY. AC shipments rose 2.4% to 2.56M, and heat pumps increased 3.8% to 2.16M. June delivered the fifth consecutive month of growth, with combined shipments up 21.7% after nine months of declines. North America’s AC equipment market grew to $28.97B, up from $27.26B in 2025. Federal tax credits no longer apply to 2026 installations, but HEAR rebates up to $8,000 remain for qualifying households. More than 20% of U.S. homes use heat pumps, while about 90% have AC, creating a large replacement opportunity.

 

Europe

• 2020: The European Union had 41.9 million heat pumps in operation. Aerothermal heat pumps were more common than ground ones. The COVID pandemic during and before this period caused the market to take a hit.
• 2021: There was a 41.1% growth in air-to-water heat pump sales. France had the most, leading 1.2 million sales (66% of them were air-to-air and 21% were air-to-water). France’s market share was 42.9% of Europe. Poland had 79,300 air/water heating heat pumps sold.
• 2022: Europe had another 49.3% increase in air-to-water and 19% increase in air-to-air heat pump sales. France’s market share reached 55.9%. In terms of numbers, the UK had 55,168. Germany’s max thermal capacity for heat pumps also reached 9.9 GW.
• 2023: Italy and France led the installed max thermal capacity (still aerothermal-based). Germany’s air-to-water heat pump sales reached a record 330,000 units. Sweden, Poland, and Norway reported the highest shares of final gross energy consumption from aerothermal heat pumps (3.56-4.1%).
• 2024: Europe’s air conditioner market reached $9.46 billion in revenue. France led the heat pump sales with 546,910 units. Italy follows with 394,370 units. In their stock, France had 6.55 million and Italy had 4.58 million heat pumps.
• 2025: Europe’s heat pump market rebounded after two years of decline, with 2.9M units sold across 21 countries, up 13%, bringing the installed base to 29.3M. France led sales at 528,000, followed by Italy at 423,000, while Germany grew 50%, with heat pumps reaching half of its new space-heating sales. Denmark grew 36%. France had the largest installed base at ~7M units, followed by Italy at just under 5M. The 2.9M new units could displace about 2.5B m³ of LNG. Europe’s AC equipment market reached $29.11B.
• 2026: Heat pump growth accelerated, with 575,000 residential units sold across 11 countries in Q1, up 17% YoY. France, Germany and Poland averaged 25% growth, while Austria fell 30% after its subsidy ended. Higher energy prices became a stronger market driver. Europe now represents over 20% of global heat pump sales. The AC equipment market reached $30.89B, with single-split systems holding the largest share at 27.48% and VRF growing fastest at 9.15%. New F-gas restrictions and the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive also affect the market in 2026. The REPowerEU target remains 60M installed heat pumps by 2030.

 

Asia

• 2020: Asia had a $28.85 billion revenue from the air conditioner market and 115.8 million AC units in stock. China had 730 million units installed. Meanwhile, Japan and Korea had 218 million units combined.
• 2021: Asia generated $31.63 million from air conditioner sales. Among them, India experienced significant sales with Voltas sharing 21% and LG sharing 16% of the market. The Indian market was projected to reach 9.7 million units by 2023 at this point.
• 2022: Asia was a major contributor to the global 117.77 million air conditioner demand. India’s overall air conditioner demand reached 7.7 million (7.4 million domestic).

• 2023: China produced 244.87 million air conditioning units. Philippines’ residential air conditioner demand was 922,000 units, and commercial air conditioner demand was 71,000 units. Malaysia produced 3.34 million air conditioner units, and had a demand of 913,000 units.
• 2024: China had $15.98 billion in air conditioner revenues. The APAC region had $39.32 billion in air conditioner revenue.
• 2025: Asia-Pacific AC revenue reached $72.75B. China shipped 210M+ units, up 13%, with a $38B market. India’s AC market grew 20–25% to 12.5M units, worth $6.15B, while household penetration remained around 10%. Japan shipped ~9.5M units, up 3.4%.
• 2026: Revenue rose to $77.45B, but China’s domestic shipments fell 5.6% amid high inventories. EU exports of Chinese ACs reached $3.76B, up 43.2%, while portable AC exports jumped 72.8%. India’s market grew to $7.07B.

Other Regions

• EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) invested $17 billion in heat pumps in the year 2020.
• UAE’s air conditioner demand was 516,000 units in 2021. Meanwhile, Kuwait’s demand was 133,000 units.
• Australia experienced a $167.40 per household revenue for air conditioners in 2024.
• Mexico was the largest recipient of the US’s $40.62 million heat pump exports.
• MENA’s (Middle East and North Africa) air conditioner market reached $2.98 billion in 2024. It is expected to grow 5.51% annually from there.

Challenges and Barriers

• High Upfront Cost: The long-term operation cost of a heat pump is low. However, the initial cost is high enough to average $11,213 in US tax returns in the 2024 fiscal year. It is a signficant barrier for many consumers.

• Climate Sustainability Concerns: There’s a perception of heat pumps being less effective than furnaces in colder climates. Although it is true for some older models, the newer, efficient models are just as good if not better. However, the public concern hasn’t changed about the topic.

• Installation Complexity and Skills: With newer technologies, like air-to-air, air-to-water, and ground source heat pumps, comes the need for skilled technicians for proper installation and maintenance.

• Building Stock Compatibility: 15% of single-family homes and 30% of mobile homes had heat pumps in 2020. This is a challenge in retrofitting existing building stock, which is a significant portion of the market.

• Trade Deficits and Import Reliance: This varies with country. The US imported $428.26 million worth of heat pumps and exported $161.31 million worth of heat pumps in 2024. China was the largest non-reversible heat pump importer in this transaction.

• Market Uncertainty and External Factors: Although the growth is positive worldwide for obvious reasons like global warming, some drops are noticeable regionally. In 2024, Germany’s sales dropped to 234,500 from the previous year’s 438,500.
  The COVID-19 pandemic caused a slight drop in the retail volume of air conditioners in 2020 across many regions. So, the market is highly dependent on unforeseen events on a global scale.

• Growing Demand in Developing Regions: Regions like Asia have a large population base, low penetration rates, and weather conditions to depend on air conditioners. Although this is a good opportunity to explore, the rapid growth can put a strain on the energy infrastructure if inefficient units are widely adopted.

Future Outlook

Both the air conditioner and the heat pump markets are expected to continue their growth globally. The $67.38 billion air conditioner market in 2024 has a 6.41% CAGR from 2024-2029. Similarly, the heat pump market capacity is expected to reach 1943 GW globally by the end of 2030.

• The Paris Agreement stated the 1.5°C climate scenario, where the surface temperature is expected to rise by the end of this century. Projections suggest the extra need of 793 million cooling units, like AC and heat pumps. The numbers could be even higher depending on how the global temperature shifts.
• The Asia Pacific will be a key driver for air conditioner growth, with increasing cooling demand for the large population. China’s 31GW heat pump capacity in 2019 already creates a strong base.
• North America shows great promise among the US regions. The region had $14.92 billion in air conditioner revenue in 2024, and has yet to show a decline in revenue despite all the challenges.
• Europe can be a key region for heat pump adoption. Although Germany had a sales drop in 2024, the air-to-air and air-to-water heat pump increases in the previous years and rest of the Europe is still promising.
• Already reduced carbon emissions results show a consumer inclination towards efficient and greener solutions, either by preference or regulations. More focus on greener solutions with lower environmental impact will still have the most return on investment for manufacturers’ R&D departments.

Conclusion

The global demand for air conditioners and heat pumps is on the rise overall. However, their growth patterns differ. AC sales remain strong, particularly in Asia and emerging markets, due to rising incomes and extreme weather conditions. On the other hand, heat pumps are experiencing exponential growth. Government policies, energy efficiency benefits, and their dual heating-cooling functionality are accelerating this growth.

Methodology

The blog uses existing market and forecast data from Statista. It focuses on heat pumps and air conditioning market data around the world and across different regions. Revenue figures are in US dollars. Capacity measurements are done in units and GW (unit capacity). Some additional data was included for larger insights in some cases.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main types of air conditioners?
The main types include window, portable, split, multi-split, central ducted, packaged, VRF, and chiller systems.

What are the main types of heat pumps?
Common types include air-source, air-to-air, air-to-water, ducted, ductless, cold-climate, ground-source, and reversible heat pumps.

Are heat pumps becoming more popular than traditional heating systems?
Yes. Heat pump adoption continues to grow, especially as homeowners look for efficient heating and cooling from one system.

Which region has the largest HVAC market?
Asia-Pacific is one of the largest HVAC markets, driven heavily by China, India, and Japan. North America and Europe also represent major markets.

What is driving HVAC market growth in 2026?
Higher cooling demand, extreme temperatures, energy efficiency, heat pump adoption, equipment replacement, and growing AC penetration are major drivers.

Are inverter air conditioners better than standard ACs?
Inverter systems can improve efficiency and comfort because the compressor adjusts its speed instead of repeatedly turning on and off.

What is the difference between an AC and a heat pump?
An air conditioner mainly provides cooling, while a reversible heat pump can provide both cooling and heating by reversing the refrigeration cycle.

Which heat pump is best for cold climates?
Cold-climate heat pumps are designed to maintain heating performance at low outdoor temperatures, making them better suited to freezing conditions.